You are reading the first edition of a website which I hope to expand. I had to start somewhere, and the present content represents simply a beginning. Here, therefore, I will introduce not only what the site contains now but also what is planned for the future.
In general terms, the site will contain a mixture of essays which explain some of the broad points which I wish to make. These are but lightly seasoned with references to the literature. This is because, in some cases, the relevant literature is, to the extent of my knowledge, sparse andto provide a more coherent narrative unburdened by citations.
The present site is largely in this form, comprising an essay on the need for a multifactorial approach to findings originating in observational epidemiology and suggesting the range of information which must be considered if such findings are to be interpreted in a way that allows risk factors for disease to be interpreted in a way which allows their significance to the population at large to be understood. This essay is accompanied by two pieces of original work. A numerical model seeks to provide a simple demonstration of some of the consequences, in terms of the estimates of risk derived from epidemiological studies, of multifactorial interaction. An exercise in cluster analysis applied to real data from a real population provides some evidence that risk factors are not distributed in a population independently of each other but tend to assort or disperse such that clusters of behaviour or exposure can be discerned.
Future editions of the site will, however, redress the balance by providing more conventional reviews of the literature. The first to arrive will be a short scientific history of smoking and health which will explain how the current perception of the relationship between smoking and health developed. This will include both epidemiological and biological information and will point out some of the inconsistencies and difficulties which have arisen, a la Kuhn (Kuhn, 1970).
Next in line is an extended review of several of the large cohort studies which have provided much of the foundation for the current perception. This will, I hope, be of interest in itself but will also serve to highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses of the information upon which the present view of smoking and health is based. More essays are planned too. Two of these, on the nature of biological and epidemiological evidence, are intended to make this site more intelligible to those not immediately involved in these disciplines. They would have sat well in the present site if time had permitted. I will explore too the philosophical aspects of causation, the importance of chance in influencing biological findings, chronic disease as an evolutionary process and the kinetics and dynamics of the development of disease.
In 'where angels fear to tread' I will free myself of the conventional restraints on the interpretation of epidemiological data in attempts to extract further information from the results of published studies.
In the accompanying map of the site the present contents are shown in black and future additions in blue.